Markets continued their upward march through the week but a downgrade of the sovereign outlook by Moody”s caused a break in the momentum. This was further compounded by it being Friday and weekend and also the fact that four important judgments were to be pronounced by the Supreme court in the latter half of the coming week.
BSE Sensex gained 158.58 points or 0.39 per cent to close at 40,323.61 points. The intra-week high was made on Thursday at a level of 40,688.27 points. NIFTY gained 17.55 points or 0.15 per cent to close at 11,908.15 points. The intra-week high was 12,021.40 points, making the all-time high roughly 90 points away. BSE Sensex is trading at an all-time high.
The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.08 per cent, 0.15 per cent and 0.24 per cent respectively. BSE Midcap was down 1.07 per cent, while BSE Smallcap lost 0.93 per cent. The FPIs” have been bullish and have been buyers on 75-80 per cent of the days and are investing about Rs 850-1,000 crore on a daily basis.
Dow Jones has also made a new lifetime high and gained 333.88 points or 1.22 per cent to close at 27,681.24 points.
The many decades old Ayodhya-Babri Masjid dispute judgement was announced on Saturday. The idea behind choosing Saturday was that it is a half holiday and would be easier to monitor law and order in case of any untoward incidents. Till the time of writing this article, things have been under control across the country.
The Supreme Court judgement was unanimous and it has asked the Central government to form a trust to construct the temple, while also directing it to allot 5 acres of suitable land for making a mosque.
Three judgements, namely the Sabarimala case, Rafael case and RTI, are to be announced between November 13 and 15.
Moody”s has downgraded the sovereign outlook from stable to negative. This saw markets lose significant ground on Friday with BSE Sensex down 330 points and NIFTY 104 points. The Indian Rupee too lost significantly and was down 33 paisa for the day.
With Ayodhya case behind us, it would be fair that the markets get back to their previous ways. The expected new high on NIFTY last week may happen in the coming week or fortnight.
The week ahead would be the last week for results reporting season and it is widely expected that overall the season has been decent with the tax break helping in a large way. If one were to exclude the gains on account of the tax changes, results are still positive to a large extent and give rise to expectations that by the time the fourth quarter results of 2019-2020 are announced, the slowdown pangs would have been resolved.
In conclusion, with a major socio-political issue hanging fire for decades resolved, markets should settle down. Use sharp dips to build positions and a new NIFTY is on the cards in the current month if not earlier.
Author: (Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal).