Karnataka is the first of the four states which will go to elections in 2018. BJP and Congress will be in a tussle to win majority seats in 224 constituencies in Karnataka and will be looking to secure above 113 seats to win by a majority and form a government in the state.
Urging my sisters and brothers of Karnataka to vote in large numbers today. I would particularly like to call upon young voters to vote and enrich this festival of democracy with their participation.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 12, 2018
BJP has been motivated by the recent election results in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and want their victory run to continue in Karnataka too. Karnataka currently has INC as the ruling party which won 122 seats out of 224 and forming a majority government in the state when the assembly elections were held last time in 2013.
This time there are three major parties contesting for 224 constituencies – BJP , INC and JD(S) – Janata Dal Secular.
The chances of any party winning by a majority seems bleak and there are strong reasons that a coalition government could be formed in Karnataka this time.
Lets take a look at some reasons for this-
- A pre-poll survey conducted by Suvarna News claimed that neither the Congress nor the BJP will get a clear majority. Of the 224 seats, the pre-poll prediction gave 88 to Congress, 82 to BJP, 43 to JD(S) and 11 to others.
- BJP has hired another survey agency – Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS) which puts the opposition BJP with 113 seats. This is the exact number of seats the BJP had won when it swept to power in 2008 under the stewardship of former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa.
- The caste game when compared with Gujarat, shows a balance that is tilted more to the Congress, which counts the minorities, Dalits and other backward castes (with the exception of the 8% Vokkaligas who favour the JD(S)) among its voters. But, communal polarisation factor may be a game-changer in Karnataka for the BJP.
- Jignesh Mewani will campaign for independent candidates and will try to steal away some Dalit votes from BJP. Dalits constitute about 24% people of the state.
- Karnataka is also the only state in the South which has had a BJP government from 2008-13, led by BS Yeddyurappa, DV Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar. In its five years of rule, the BJP had three Chief Ministers.And more than 5 ministers were sent to jail including CM Yediyurappa on corruption charges. Few ministers were caught red handed while watching sex videos in assembly.
- BS Yeddyurappa was asked to resign by BJP on the charges of corruption. There was an internal party rift too and Yeddyurappa resigned and formed his separate party. He later came and rejoined BJP.
- While BJP has a base in Urban areas , the rural factions are tilted towards Congress. According to Election Commission data,there are around 70 urban and 154 rural assembly constituencies in Karnataka. Rural and Urban divide will affect the results more.
- BJP tenure was marked with corruption and scandals and people still have this in their minds. Yeddyurappa isn’t a trusted choice for CM’s post and there is a rift for putting his name as a CM candidate within and outside the party.
- Siddaramiah’s Congress has been corruption free and has strong hold in rural areas.
- There was an internal survey which revealed that JD(S) could get around 20–25% votes this time. This could lead to a split among votes and we could well be in for a coalition government.
Related, Right Wing entering in uncharted territory
Congress has a strong foothold in maximum constituencies but BJP has been working a lot on ground level to establish their voter base in Karnataka again. For BJP , a little more effort from Amit Shah and Narendra Modi could mould things BJP’s way this time too.
However , in a recent interview of a spokesperson from JD(S) , chances of forming a coalition government with BJP was ruled out as they had bitter experiences with BJP in the past.
Lets wait and see what happens.
Thanks!
Author, Ujjwal Singh, Political Observer.
